Wednesday, October 27, 2010
The US Dollar index is trading around multi decade lows. It is forming a "L-formation" at the 70 level. Note the high of the reaction goes to the exact fib 38% line. If the Dollar breaks below 70, the first target is a 70% wave projection of 55. The final target would be 40 by 2015. If it does break below 70, BUY GOLD.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Found this chart in the APMEX email. In 10 years, the stock market is down 11%. Silver is up over 300%.
Has anything changed?
Or, will the current over spending by the government, debasing the currency by the fed and search for safety continue. I think the move in metals is only beginning.
Read the whole article in the next issue of Futures Truth magazine.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Stephen Gandel, of CNNMoney thinks Cotton is in a Minor Bubble
See the whole article here
Why It's Hot
Cotton prices have nearly doubled in the past year to 80¢ a pound. The world has been using more but producing less. Last year's U.S. cotton production dropped to 12.2 million bales, the smallest crop in 20 years. And rising populations are causing nations like China and India to devote more land to foodstuffs and less to cotton.
Why It's Worrisome
The two-year run has given farmers plenty of time to ramp up production, which means more cotton will soon be on the market and lower prices will follow. The USDA estimates that U.S. production will hit 18.6 million bales this year, up 50% from a year ago.
Verdict: A Minor Bubble
Analyst Sharon Johnson of First Capital Group says cotton has traded around 50¢ a pound for much of the past decade. When cotton has spiked above 80¢, it hasn't stayed there for long. "Prices are overvalued," she says.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Martin Hutchinson claims that China usually holds 10% of its reserves in Gold. Currently they only hold 1.5% in the yellow metal. With current reserves at $2 trillion, China might be in the market to buy $85 billion worth of gold. This equates to over 67 million ounces.
CAN THAT BE RIGHT?
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Go to this link to see it.
Jeff Ma on Yahoo
One thing he said which struck a chord with me was "people are more impacted by a loss than by a win". Meaning, you are more negatively impacted by a LOSS of $1,000 than you are positively impacted by a WIN of $1,000. So, your wins should always be more than your losses to maintain emotional equity.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
See the article here : http://seekingalpha.com/article/219808-is-gold-crash-proof-this-time?source=email
The author states that the Expo Moving Average is a good stop. Maybe? I tested via the Futures Truth Excalibur platform on a 34 week simple moving average. Only entering on a Friday Close above the 34 week simple moving average. Exiting on a move below the 34 week moving average. This method gets stopped out 50 times and shows a Total Hypothetical profit of $14,140 and Maximum Drawdown of $32,890. A better method for this TRENDING MARKET would be to place the stop 5% below the Simple Moving Average. This shows a Total Hypothetical profit of $47,140. A max drawdown of $24,300 and percent winners of 59%. Such a big stop works well on trending markets. Probably not so much on congestion markets.
All results hypothetical. Past performance not necessarily indicative of futures results. This is for informative purposes only.
Friday, August 13, 2010
December Gold looks like it had a Yum-Yum breakout of an Irregular Head and Shoulders bottom. It is Irregular in that it has 2 Left Shoulders and only 1 Right. The move from the bottom (Head) up to the breakout point should provide a measure above the breakout to the price target.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
From Daily Reckoning at http://dailyreckoning.com/
In 1970, a year after the Rolling Stones released the greatest rock 'n' roll track of all time, you might have picked up a front-row ticket to see the British invaders for around $20. Adjusted for "official" inflation, that same ticket (or any other $20 item) would today set you back $112.35. That's a 461.8% jump in price. (Adjusted for unofficial inflation - i.e. actual prices - a front-row Stones ticket would cost something like $350). Some safekeeping!
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Friday, August 6, 2010
From Whiskey and Gunpowder newsletter
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Yesterday was a narrow range day. Not much action. Stafford Daytrade made 2 points none the less. Of course past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. We bought at 1122.25. Holding till the close to cover at 1124.50. $100 per emini contract. Not bad for a day with a 10 point range. All trades must be considered hypothetical because they may or may not have occurred exactly as mentioned. Please see disclaimer on staffordtrading.com.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Ten Stock-Market Myths That Just Won't Die
by Brett Arends
1 "This is a good time to invest in the stock market."
Really? Ask your broker when he warned clients that it was a bad time to invest. October 2007? February 2000?
2 "Stocks on average make you about 10% a year."
Stop right there. This is based on some past history — stretching back to the 1800s — and it's full of holes.
read the rest here.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
Saturday, July 31, 2010
It compares the runup in prices of Gold versus two other bubble - Nasdaq stocks in 90s and housing in the last 10 years.
Does this mean Gold can double from here before it is in a bubble?
Friday, July 30, 2010
Thursday showed a strong open with follow thru up. This petered out with a double top and price started moving lower. I raised my first target to just above Wed's low at 483.66. This was filled and I moved the stop loss on the remaining 50 shares to 486.26 - above the open of the day. As this would be a clear-out since the low of yesterday was taken out. This stop was hit. Looking at the chart last night, I noticed a beautiful Head and Shoulders bottom around 12 noon. I should have moved my stop loss down to just above the neckline, shown in red, to 482.26. This would have been an extra $2 on the exit. Still a profitable trade. But, could have been $4 better.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
The upside target projected by the neck line break of the Head and Shoulder's bottom formation has been reached. It is denoted in the chart by the top of the BLUE line. Recent action has shown an extension high. It this an Upthrust and a short opportunity?
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
The world has consumed more food than it has produced for the past five years. This is the first time in recorded history that’s happened. This despite there being no worldwide drought for several years.
Does this mean its time to buy grains?
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Another reason to buy gold.
Friday, July 23, 2010
The Head, Left and right shoulders are marked on the chart. Note that the head was a Spring of prior lows. A "Spring" is a break and immediate reversal of a prior pivot low. Today's close above the the line which connects the two pivot highs signifies a breakout. I did not buy today as I don't like to initiate new positions on a Friday. I will look to buy a 30 minute or afternoon breakout on Monday. The target to the upside is a move equal to the distance from the Low of the "head" to the trend line, projected up from the trendline break.
This is for educational purposes only.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Monday, July 19, 2010
Yesterday (Friday) was a big down day with a high open and a low close. So we are expecting a rotating day today. A ROTATING DAY is one whose price will rotate around the open of the day. Today opened higher and showed price follow thru higher. These higher highs were NOT confirmed on the MACD. Since we are expecting a move back down to, and possible below the previous day's close, look for a short set-up. A short position could have been taken below 1068 on a break below the low of the third high. This bar also shows a tail which is a sign of sellers entering the market. Initially, place your stop loss above the high of this bar. Look to cover about a point above the close of Friday(yesterday).
Later in the morning, after price made a move below the previous day's close, a divergent buying opportunity presented itself. A long position could have been taken on break above the third drive to new lows. A stop would be placed below these lows at 10:51 EST. Looking to cover a point shy of the previous day's close. These trades are hypothetical and for educational purposes only. See hypothetical disclaimer at www.staffordtrading.com.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
Then, I delved deeper into the charts. A few key points why this might NOT be the break revealed themselves. First, price was right at the bottom of the rough channel carved out since early May. July 1 saw buyers come in and push the market higher off this point. This is evidenced by the large “tail” on the July 1 candlestick. Read the rest of the article here. www.staffordtrading.com