Silver to $26?

“Never to get married to a position.” That is tough advice for a gold and silver bug who has had a profitable 10 year run. 
Silver’s first Head and Shoulders Top in the summer proved this point.  A price target of $36 was forecast by the September 12 breakdown.  This was hit, and then some.
Another, longer Head and Shoulders top broke the Neck line on December 12.  This forecast a price target of $26.  Right at the September low.  This is right around the 50 percent level of the high reached in late April, 2011
After the last leg down, price retraced to the 50 percent level.  This forecast a 50 percent likelihood of the old low being broken.
Bottom Line, it is too early to get long Silver here.

Silver went to $26.14 by the end of December.  I'll call that a WIN!

The “key” to this chart is that the previous action in the market was strongly up.  Three strong days up followed by a NR day.  Yesterday was a Narrow Range(NR) / Congestion bar.  Which way will the market go out of the NR day?

A huge gap up open tells us - UP!  This gap had IMMEDIATE follow thru.  Look to get long.  We don’t recommend trading for the first 30 to 60 minutes of the trading day.  At 10:00, price had a 30 minute breakout up.  Stafford Daytrade got long on the confirmation of this 30 minute breakout shortly thereafter at a price of 1179.80. A new high above the 30 minute breakout bar ensues.

After some positive follow through, price congest.  Expect a long congestion and potential deep reaction based on the big move thus far.  Traders needs to “digest” such a big move.  Sure enough, price goes sideways from 10:45 to 2:30.  Then the afternoon Counter-Trend move happens.  This carries exactly to the 68% retracement level of the move from the open of the day.  Stafford Daytrade’s stop loss was loose enough to NOT get hit.  After the afternoon Counter-Trend move, our unique trailing stop feature will “kick in” and hopefully protect profits.

The “big boys” come in and drive the market much higher in last half hour of the day.  How could they NOT?  If the “big boys” weren’t long coming into today, they have to make darn sure they are long going out of the day.  Stafford Daytrade exited it’s long trade at the close of 1190.90.  A profit of 11.10 on this trade.  OVER $2500 on one big SP or about $500 per e-mini. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  ALL RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL. 

Golfer Rory

Reading about Rory McIlroy's amazing US Open when reminded me of trading. Over 4 rounds of golf he shot 16 under par. That's 4 birdies per 18 holes with no boggies or above. Just 1 birdie per every 4 1/2 holes of golf. Very similar to trading. If you have 18 trades in a day, a week or a month and can come out even on 14 of those trades and win on just 4, you should do very well. Take our Stafford Daytrade system. It trades about 14 times per month. And over hypothetical testing, it "makes" it's month on just 2 or 3 trades.

US is broke

“The US is the largest indebted nation in the history of the world and the debt is going higher and higher," Rogers added.

A new report from Deutsche Bank ranks the US government as the world's fourth riskiest sovereign borrower, behind Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and just ahead of Italy.

Coffee

Coffee at multi decade highs and maker higher highs as we speak. I expect starbucks to raise prices soon. Stock up now.

Hilarious

The Dems and Republicans are arguing over a $30 billion difference in budget cuts. My ROUGH estimate is that the US government spends $3 trillion a year. Arguing over that $30 billion is like arguing over the ONE PENNY change when you buy a 99 cent diet coke for a buck. Not only that but taking a week arguing over that penny. At the sake of not getting back to work (read government shutdown). This would be funny in a movie. SAD in real life. Amerika is broke and screwed.

Corn

With Crude oil over $110 a barrel, this article on Corn shortage is apt.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-corn-reserves-expected-to-apf-3038968207.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

I'm long a may corn 700 call

Deficits

The U.S. just reported a record budget deficit last month of $222.5 billion, a bigger deficit than the entire year of 2007.

Ring of Fire

Google "Ring of Fire". We've had 3 of the 4 corners
have a major earthquake. Is California next?

Bonds

Foreign central bank purchases of U.S. treasuries have fallen from 50% down to 30%.
I just got this from NIA email. Does this mean the bond bubble is about to burst?
I think maybe.

Moo

Cattle futures hit an ALL TIME high. Who says there is no inflation? If you don't eat meat or drive, I guess. NOT!

Bond Bubble

WSJ reports that Bond mutual funds had $4 bil investment inflows for the 6th week running. TIME TO SELL THE BONDS? Oh yeah.

China Energy

China's energy demands are growing. (obviously). They plan on using more solar power. Solar panels are made with Silver and Copper. Buy both. Good article here : http://seekingalpha.com/article/257046-two-vital-stories-the-media-is-ignoring?source=email_watchlist

Dollar Breaks

The US dollar index broke my uptrend line this week. I bought UDN - an inverse dollar ETF. First support point is 75. Then 72. Then ... ? Zero?!? Buy Silver!

Guaranteed Investment?

I just wrote an article for my dad's magazine on an investment that you can buy for 25% less than its value. Its guaranteed NEVER to go below what you paid for it and if it follows similar investments of the past decade will be worth 10 to 20 times what you paid. CURIOUS?!?

check my math please.

Say I put 20% down on a $500,000 home in Atlanta January 1, 2006. Atlanta homes have DROPPED 5% a year for the last 5 years. Most of my monthly payments for the first 7 to 10
years go towards interest and not principle of the loan. So 5% of $500,000 equals 25% of my
$100,000 down payment. Is the equity in my home now at $23,730? Have I lost over $75 k
in owning a home in last 5 years in NOTlanta?
PS> I rent. ;) Another 5 years down on its way.

Fade the Journal

Tuesday's Wall Street Journal says the US treasury bond market is ready to go back up. meaning lower interest rates. That means to me its time to double down on my TBT or RRPIX. An ETF and Fund which go up when bonds go DOWN. How can interest NOT go up when we have so much debt as far as the eye can see?

Dollar Top 2

Just posted a new chart analysis on website. A different way to have sold the US dollar in the
middle of January. www.staffordtrading.com

PPI

It was released last week that Wholesale prices increased 0.8% in January. This is almost a 10% annualized rate. "Crude" goods prices rose at a staggering 39% annualized rate. Can you imagine paying close to 40% more next for clothes, furniture, TVs etc ? It might happen. Protect your wealth.

Crop Prices

Where's inflation? Lame Stream media denies inflation is coming. It's here. Look at this chart. Expect prices in the grocery to increase 6 to 9 months after prices on the farm go up. Expect to pay much more at the grocery come March or April.

Inflation

People say there is no inflation.
Yet, this came out yesterday.
CRB Foodstuff index is up 40% in a year.
CRB (total) index is up 24% in a year.
Inflation is here. NoW

Talking heads

All the talking head (aches) on CNBC saying Dow 14000. Crash is imminent.
thoughts?

Dollar Chart

Posted a great new chart analysis on my website at
http://www.staffordtrading.com/home.htm
Will the dollar break below the November, 2010 lows?

"King Dollar" ?

Last week, Larry Kudlow on his show was touting "King Dollar" because the US dollar was rallying. Below is a long term chart of the dollar. See the little up blip on the right hand side? The teeny, weeny little up move? The miniscule .. Well, you get the idea. This is the strength in the US dollar to which he was referring. This looks like a pauper currency to me. It is playing around 25 year lows. We have a NO Interest Rate policy. We are papering over our debt - which will never get repaid. And people wonder why gold is going up.