Wednesday, January 17, 2024

 Happy New Year!

What do you think 2024 holds for the markets?


Thursday, December 11, 2014

Web update ...

ES has rallied dramatically for a few weeks. The past few days have shown strong up moves. Our daytrade system came into today (10/28/14) calling it a “sell day” because of the past few days strength. After this strength, a trader must ...


ES Turn
5 Minute Bars, 24 Hours
The stock market “tanked” overnight. However, the weekly and daily trends are both up. Therefore, you have to look for buys. 
ES gave a great buy signal. Price formed a Head and Shoulders bottom in the first 3 hours of trading. The Head and Shoulders are labelled. The right shoulder is extended into a “handle” formation.
The breakout happens at 12:35 around 2045. 
The distance from the head to the neckline is the target distance for the projected move above the neckline. This is shown as green arrow. Price goes right to this level around 1257. Which is very close to the previous day’s close.

Emotions, Part 5

A trader must handle Complacency. This can occur after a long winning streak. Always maintain proper leverage. This is NOT the time to double or triple up. Or, risk it all on the next trade.  As my father says “your worst drawdown is always ahead of you.”  Plan accordingly.

Monday, July 8, 2013

5 Emotions, Part 4

The next emotional key to successful trading is to be able to handle the Money.
Look at a systems average loss. Can you take that loss? Can you take that loss on roughly half of every trade you make?
One thing to do is to look at the historical performance and fund the account accordingly. A trader might not want to risk more than 1% of a $50,000 per trade. As such, the trader should only trade systems whose average loss is less than $500.

Friday, July 5, 2013

5 Emotions, part 3

Tony’s third emotion to handle is Desperation.
As traders, we are familiar with desperation. It usually shows up after we’ve had four or five losing trades in a row.
A major advantage of mechanical systems is they can be back tested to show most consecutive losers.  If a system shows 10 or 11 losses in a row over back testing and still performs well, you should expect to have 10 or 11 losses in a row in the future. 
Don’t get desperate. The system is acting within it’s parameters at 4 or 5 losses in a row.  Should the system show 13 or 14 losses in a row in this example, that might be a case to step back and evaluate.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

5 emotions, part 2

The second key Tony discusses is to learn how to handle frustration. You may get frustrated taking losses. That is part of trading.  Review the systems average loss and percent losers. If you aren’t comfortable with the figures shown, don’t trade the system.
Learn to expect an average trade and an average winning ratio. To expect more is foolish and sets you up for failure.